Where are we with coal? Many people may be surprised to know that we have not yet reached peak coal use. Some years there is a slight dip in demand, but until now, the trend globally is still upwards.

Not Yet Reached Peak Coal Use.

Those of us that would like to see a rapid decrease in coal use around the world, are going to be disappointed. While we are building cleaner alternative energy sources at an ever-increasing rate, the problem is, it's still not fast enough to keep up with the continually rising power demand. Consumers have two choices, do without power at times or accept fossil fuels as currently the only realistic solution to keeping the screens on 24-7-365.

Do Without Power At Times Or Accept Fossil Fuels

For twenty years it has looked like coal would be the first fossil fuel to reach peak demand. Like the others, it has stubbornly ignored all optimistic peak predictions.

Around the world new coal plants are being built every year. These are investments in power plants that companies and governments expect to be operational and profitable for decades.

Regarded as the dirtiest of fuels, coal currently accounts for approximately 40% of global Co2 emissions from fuel combustion.

Countries that have a preference for coal like to talk about carbon capture as a potential solution rather than stop burning coal. However, while in principle carbon capture could potentially solve the environmental impact of CO2 coal emissions, at scale this technology is untested. There is another problem that carbon capture cannot solve. There seems to be a correlation between high coal use in a country and higher than normal cases of respiratory diseases in the local population.

Focusing on 3 Countries on Different Coal Use Pathways

China, USA and First the UK

The UK was an early starter in the coal industry, with evidence of early shallow mines dating back to the Roman occupation of southern Britain. Deep shaft mining began in north England and central Scotland in the 1500s, but it was another 200 years before the industry really started to boom.

In the years after the industrial revolution, the UK became the largest producer of coal in the world, meeting the needs of their heavy industry demanding increasing amounts of energy. That demand created jobs and business opportunities. Entrepreneurs became rich and at one time over a million British people were employed in the sector.

There can be no doubt that in the short and medium term sticking with coal would have been better for the UK economy, but they have now completed all of the hard work and their future power generation looks much less polluting. In the longer term this will be beneficial when other countries play catch up.

There is now no coal fired power stations in the country. Some coal is still produced, but far less than the early part of the 20th century and an insignificant amount on a global scale.

Where is the USA with Coal

In the early 1900s USA overtook the UK to become the world's largest producer.

Last century their production has closely followed their domestic demand (see the charts below). Upwards last century and back down this century.

Climate policies and promised climate commitments are leading to more aggressive reductions in burning coal for energy.

Scaling back on coal in a big way is underway and progress has been made. Unlike the UK, there is still a lot of work to do to reduce coal use in power generation and industrial uses.

Where is China with Coal

China and India have a massive and increasing hunger for coal. For these giant countries, presently there is no alternative. They need to keep building new coal power plants and feeding the many existing ones. The Chinese economy would not survive if the power supply failed to meet demand. The country could have a disastrous implosion that would have a massive effect on the entire world.

There are no surpluses of any one energy source, so China has to max out on all of them.

China is motivated to move to cleaner alternatives, but it is going to take time. Expect to see demand from China start to decrease in the late 2030s.

If coal is a problem for the environment, and there is little doubt that it is, then China with over half the world's consumption is currently the biggest contributor.

For developing nations, coal is still an important part of the mix. In the short term, as these countries continue to industrialize, coal demand will increase. In time though they too will move to alternative energies.

In some regions, especially those with energy security concerns, coal will continue to help stabilize the energy mix until it is possible for these economies to move on to cleaner sources.

Most people will be interested in where coal use goes from here. From a global perspective, the answer to that is continued growth or at least maintaining current levels for the rest of this decade. Peak coal around 2030. Following that by a very gradual 20-year decline and finally a sharper fall for the remainder of the century.

Peak Coal Around 2030.

Technological advances in areas such as nuclear fission, renewables among others may see coal phased out quicker. The market to find replacements for all fossil fuels is open and profitable. People and companies are working hard to find opportunities to help governments achieve their climate goals.

About The Author
Aba Selassie
Chewells Contributor

Aba is a social media expert and heads our jobs team. ... »

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Replies

• Fred (Oct 17, 2024)
  Coal's not dead yet! But yeah, it's gotta go someday...maybe not in my lifetime though.
• Leon (Sep 2, 2024)
  I like that the article touches on developing nations. Like with most things, we're facing a different reality from the West when it comes to energy.
• Carlos (Aug 26, 2024)
  The transition to renewables is not just a technological issue; its also political and cultural. The article should talk more about that.
• Mia (Jul 1, 2024)
  I laughed at the part about 'future pathways' -- honestly, the world moves so slowly on this stuff. I hope we make it before it's too late.
• Tao (Apr 27, 2024)
  Very informative article, especially the charts. But it feels to me like renewable energy will still take a long time to replace coal fully, especially in developing regions.
• The O (Apr 23, 2024)
  Coal is outdated! Lets go wind and solar. Time to stop delaying the inevitable! Olaf Norway
• Lois (Feb 25, 2024)
  Will the switch from coal put the prices up and be affordable for everyone?
• Satoshi (Feb 7, 2024)
  I find it fascinating how coal seems relatively unimportant but is actually so intertwined with historical global economics and politics. Transition won't be as smooth as some think.
• Pat (Jan 22 17, 2024)
  Interesting read don't forget how many jobs are tied to coal.
• Ravi (Jan 17, 2024)
  In my village, coal is still important for us, but everyone talks about solar now.
• Emma UK (Jan 17, 2024)
  Coal is still such a big part of energy worldwide. Its crazy! I wonder how fast we can really transition to renewables.
• Under Milk Wood (Jan 16, 2024)
  They used to say keeping the lights on, I liked the screens on alternative. Very true today.

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